Every Monday morning I pull the weekend's auction results and try to make sense of what the market is telling us. This week the story is divergence — some segments running hot while others quietly cool off. Here's the breakdown.

Air-Cooled Porsche: The Correction Continues

I've been saying for two years that air-cooled 911s were overvalued relative to the driver experience, and the market is finally agreeing with me. A clean 1987 Carrera coupe that would have brought $85k at the peak of 2022 is settling around $62k now. A 964 Carrera 2 that cleared $110k eighteen months ago? Call it $88k today.

This isn't a crash — it's a correction, and it's healthy. The cars were being bought by people who had never driven one and didn't care to. Now the guys who actually want to use them on canyon roads are buying in, and the market is reflecting that shift.

What to watch: The 993 is holding more firmly than the 964 or 3.2. If you're in the market for an air-cooled 911, the 964 C2 manual is the value right now. You're getting a car that was $100k+ eighteen months ago for $85–95k, and the mechanicals are well understood.

E30 M3: Steady Eddie

The E30 M3 remains one of the most stable segments in the entire collector car market. No meaningful movement this week — Euro-spec cars are sitting $95–115k, US-spec Sport Evolution variants are flirting with $120k on good days. The floor seems firm at around $80k for honest drivers.

This stability makes sense. The E30 M3 is a car that gets more credibility the more people drive it, not less. Every magazine article written about it reinforces why it should be expensive. The supply is genuinely constrained (5,325 US-market cars ever built), and demand from serious drivers isn't going anywhere.

The move: If you own one, hold. If you're trying to buy one, there's no urgency — but don't expect a discount. These sellers know what they have.

JDM: Another Strong Week

The JDM market was the story this week. An R32 GT-R with 68k kilometers cleared $78,500 — more than I would have expected six months ago. An NSX Type R (the real one, JDM gray market) hit $245k. A clean FD RX-7 in Vintage Red with a rebuilt rotary went for $52k.

The 25-year rule continues to work in favor of JDM buyers and sellers alike. 2001 models are now eligible for import, which means a fresh wave of clean, low-mileage examples is arriving from Japan — and they're being snapped up immediately.

What's interesting: The Subaru Impreza STi (GC8) is quietly becoming the next move. Still in the $25–40k range, but the trajectory is clear. Same for the clean Honda Civic Type R EK9.

American Muscle: The Bifurcation Continues

There are two muscle car markets right now and they have almost nothing to do with each other. The documented, numbers-matching 1969 Camaro Z/28 or 1970 Chevelle SS 454 LS6 market remains strong — these are effectively one-generation removed from fine art, and they trade accordingly ($150k–$400k+).

Everything else is softer. Driver-quality muscle that peaked in 2021–2022 is down 15–20% from those highs. A nice 1968 Mustang fastback with a 302 that might have sold for $55k two years ago is a $42k car today. That's not bad for buyers who actually want to drive these things.

The Number That Caught My Attention

A 1965 Shelby GT350 — a real one, with Hertz receipts and SAAC documentation — went for $312,000 at Barrett-Jackson Scottsdale. A few years ago that car would have been $225k. That delta tells you something about where serious collector money is going: to the genuine articles, the fully documented examples, the cars with complete provenance.

If you're buying in the $30–100k range, the lesson is the same one I've been repeating for years: buy the best, most honest car you can find, in the most interesting configuration, with as much documentation as you can get. The market rewards that every single time.

More next Monday.